Snapshot
- Seeks Alpha in Global Emerging Markets—capitalizes on consumption and innovation trends
- Quality Growth Portfolio—based on deep, holistic analysis
- All-Cap, Company-First Approach—emphasizes fundamental research over top-down country or sector allocation
Commentary
Period ended December 31, 2023
For the year ending December 31, 2023, the Matthews Emerging Markets Equity Fund returned 8.43% (Investor Class) and 8.63% (Institutional Class), while its benchmark, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, returned 10.27% over the same period. For the fourth quarter, the Fund returned 7.37% (Investor Class) and 7.47% (Institutional Class), while the benchmark returned 7.93%.
Market Environment
2023 was challenging for emerging markets on a number of levels. At the macro level, rising interest rates and a strong U.S. dollar were headwinds while geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China remained elevated and continued to be a significant drag on international sentiment toward China. Another notable trait of the year was the prolonged weakness of the Chinese economy. The rapid post-COVID recovery that many investors expected didn’t materialize and the country struggled with a lack of confidence and problems in specific sectors like real estate. Mitigating China’s woes somewhat was India’s continued resilient growth, supported in part by its domestic infrastructure programs and increasing global trade. Toward the end of the year, there was a general consensus that inflation had peaked in the global economy and that the U.S. Federal Reserve would pivot toward cutting rates in 2024.
It is also encouraging to reflect on the economic conditions of most emerging markets coming out of the pandemic. COVID was a ‘stress test’ that most of these markets passed as far as macroeconomic policy and financial conditions are concerned. Emerging markets stimulated less fiscally and monetarily compared with developed markets and that left them with lower relative debt levels and more monetary policy credibility.
Performance Contributors and Detractors
At the regional level, our overweight and stock selection in Mexico was the biggest contributor to total and relative returns in 2023, benefiting from gains in real estate, cement and banking stocks. An underweight to China also supported relative performance, as did our off-benchmark positions in Vietnam and the U.S., the latter buoyed by semiconductor equipment and enterprise software positions. On the other hand, stock selection in India was the biggest detractor to relative returns. We think we got our India allocation decision right, but poor stock selection more than offset that. Our underweight in technology companies in Taiwan and underweight and stock selection in South Korea also detracted.
At the sector level, stock selection in real estate contributed the most to relative returns in the period. An overweight to IT also contributed, as did an underweight and stock selection in consumer staples. In contrast, stock selection in consumer discretionary was the biggest detractor to relative performance due to holdings in China. Stock selection in energy also impacted relative returns.
At the holdings level, Prologis Property Mexico, a Mexican real estate developer, FPT Corp., a Vietnamese IT services company, Banco BTG Pactual, a Brazilian investment bank and Globant, an enterprise software company with coders located throughout emerging markets, were among the top contributors to total and relative returns in 2023. Prologis benefited from the growing demand for quality warehouse space in Mexico, driven partly by re-shoring of supply chains from Asia. Globant bucked the trend of weaker enterprise software demand by nimbly emphasizing new verticals, like sports and entertainment, and leaning into vibrant geographies like Latin America and the Middle East. On the other hand, Chinese e-commerce company JD.com was the biggest detractor to total returns and was among the biggest detractors to relative returns. The company struggled against the backdrop of weak consumption as well as rising competitive intensity in the industry. First Quantum Minerals, a Canadian-based miner with global operations, also detracted, following a forced shutdown of its copper mine in Panama after countrywide protests. We exited that position toward the end of the year. Asia focused insurers AIA Group and Prudential also declined in 2023.
Notable Portfolio Changes
The portfolio added a number of new positions, including Emaar Properties, a real estate developer in Dubai, and Prio, a Brazilian oil and gas producer. Emaar will benefit, we believe, as Dubai’s reforms attract capital and stimulate economic growth. Prio is building a strong oil production business, in our view, by buying and rehabilitating fields which larger companies no longer want. On the flip side, we sold positions in companies including First Quantum, CapitaLand, a real estate investment trust in Singapore, and Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS), a hospital operator.
Outlook
We continue to find many attractive emerging markets companies to consider for the portfolio. Even in uncertain times they are solving problems for their societies, or creating value for their customers. Inflation in emerging markets is also on the way down, and interest rate cuts around the world this year could help overall liquidity conditions. Near-shoring and ‘China+1’ trends also continue to benefit countries in Southeast Asia, Central Europe and Latin America. In the Middle East, the landscape has been changing as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates diversify away from oil. In Asia, we believe economies are finding their feet post COVID and we expect some cyclical growth to return. We also see opportunities coming from domestic structural drivers like infrastructure spend in certain markets, notably India, and these could help counter any slowdown in global trade and economic activity.
Top 10 holdings as of December 31, 2023. Current and future holdings are subject to change and risk.
Average Annual Total Returns - MEGMX as of 12/31/2024
Fees & Expenses
Matthews has contractually agreed to waive fees and reimburse expenses to limit the Total Annual Fund Operating Expenses until April 30, 2026. Please see the Fund’s prospectus for additional details.
Investments in emerging and frontier securities may involve risks such as social and political instability, market illiquidity, exchange-rate fluctuations, a high level of volatility and limited regulation. Additionally, investing in emerging and frontier markets countries are substantially smaller, less liquid and more volatile than securities markets in more developed markets.